Biweekly Market Recap 3/31/2018

US

  1. Before 2018 1Q, lots of data look too good to be true, and the truth is some of the data/ signals is deteriorating in Q1 but not alarming.
  2. Retail is moderate, due to the inflation pick up and the oil price runs up. Need to look at when the retail sale will pick up and that would be the upward signal for the retail stock.
  3. Building Inventory looks concerning but indeed, we need to wait for the further signal, especially to see whether the sale will go up. In general, it is not a big deal for now, the fundamental is still strong.

Other Countries

  1. Looks fine.

Trade War

  1. Lots of noise… Just like chicken pecking each other
  2. Nothing concrete to show the change of the trade environment. No big change on the treaty with Korea.
  3. China, 60 days grace period, no actual action yet.

Conclusion

Fundamental is good, some things are alarming but no warning. Need to look at the next quarter data to prove the prediction or prepare to embrace the surprising news.

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