Biweekly Market Recap 4/14/2018

Earning

Expect strong growth which supports the equity price. US dollar depreciation (3% YoY) also helps to prosper the earnings.

Energy

2018 Brent target price $68, WTI price $65, slightly goes down compared to now

Trade War

China recently announced the revolution on the financial market which provides more openness to foreign investors and institutions. Surprisingly, the implementing schedule is very aggressive, which indicates a strong-mindedness. Those actions will significantly ease the tension of trade war between US and China.

Most of the trade sanctions have been implemented and there is little coming out. The tighten trade may have a potential impact on the sentiment which drives the investment in the EM market. The trade war currently has little impact on the US and China economy but may have split up impacts on the supply chain countries in southeast Asia.

Geopolitical Risk

Market concern moves from trade war to geopolitical issue including sanction on Iran and attack on Syria.

Retail

2% estimation of the Q1 retail growth, 2.25% on the Q2. Expect to see a soft patch and rebound in the following months.

The progress of labor and salary number is solid.

Finally, in US start to see CPI number start to pick up YoY comparing the 2017 March ugly inflation number. Other countries such as Canada, Japan indeed show a strong signal on inflation.

Expect to see three more hikes on rate this year, still hold our previous estimation.

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