Biweekly Market Recap 6/23

World Economy

Follow the trend of 2017 economy which is a good thing indeed, we should appreciate that. Especially on the GDP growth side, still pretty good. However, in terms of sectors, some of them are not performing well. And the world economy loses some of the momentum, especially in the EU market.

Trade War

  • Become the biggest tail risk.
  • Looking back at my previous biweekly view, we can clearly tell the market dynamics in terms of the trade war concern. Also, the whole things are mostly driven by the US.
  • Trump starts to threat it claiming about 250 billion dollars, which is much more significant than the previous magnitude… which is around the total import value from China.

Currency

TRY/BRL/ARS suffer with currency depression. More idiosyncratic problem, not a systematic EM currency crisis.

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