Two rate cut this year half, driven by slower growth(trade war) and low inflation. Revise GDP growth to 1.2-1.5% The market rationale expect to ease the trade tension which everyone does except Trump. So there is a miscalculation risk if trump behavior irrational. Asset allocation suggestion: A股还是在历史低位，易主席又发话了。我个人还是愿意OW A股，看好中长期。（便宜还是硬道理的） 考虑到贸易战，UW EM currency, OW JPY and Gold这种风险对冲产品。美股和各类还是不要买了，特别是会受贸易战影响的。更何况现在美股太贵了。 … Continue reading Market Recap 2019/6/2
Econ lifting, more in EU and China
PMI in Japan and EU both fell US and China continue to head towards a compromise. The broad outline of what make up a deal is beginning to emerge from the talk. FOMC: no new information.
There is one tricky but very popular problem I often encounter. How do you deal with value assignment in Python, for variable, list and tuple? In fact, this question has been answered by many people and I want to brief my thinking and list the reference. In Python (and other languages), a variable (and object … Continue reading Is Python call-by-value or call-by-reference? Neither.
China: US-China tase talks appear to have ended on a hopeful note according to press reports this morning and the negotiation set to continue next week in Washington Negotiations have discussed the possibility of removing Washington’a 10% tariffs on $200b worth if Chinese import (while leaving in place the 25% tariff on $50 billion worth … Continue reading Market Recap 2/15/2019
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associate, recently published a report and video to outline his understanding of economics machine and his approach to tackling econ prediction. I will take this chance to do a deep deep digest in his econ philosophy and generate my own understanding as well. 1. Economics Machine – Video How … Continue reading How Economics Machine Work