TSLA Analysis:Overprice | Underweight

TSLA Analysis Overprice | Underweight • Distinguish product, unique business model, cutting edge technology. No legacy burden such as pension, OPEB… • However, all above factors have been priced in a lot, even with bolder forecast in model 3 volume. • The street valuation is given by a combination of lots of valuation factors and apparently TSLA is not very attractive. Details see below: • [High valuation ratio]40x EV/EBITA, significantly larger than industrial average (2-3x for GE/F) • [2018 is a tough year] TSLA is having a dent this year in terms of all revenue indicators. While the market expects … Continue reading TSLA Analysis:Overprice | Underweight

Market Recap 2018/11/28

Fed: Expect 2-3 hikes in 2019 Few believe the leveraged loans today would set off a crisis, since they focus on a smaller part of the economy rather than sprawling the housing mkt in 2008 The total leverage loan market is now doubled what is was in 2008, around 59% of them are junk loans. Central bank has been paying attention to elevated loans this year. Powell said: we have our eyes on that. Mnuchin inquires about whether fed could tighten policy by accelerating its balance sheeting shrinkage process rather than raising rates. Trade war: Trump and Xi agree to … Continue reading Market Recap 2018/11/28

Difference between independence and correlation – my understanding

Basically, everyone (or almost everyone) knows that independence and correlation equal to zero are different concepts. More importantly, they don’t have two-way relations, which is if you know two random variables X, Y have zero correlation, you cannot imply that … Continue reading Difference between independence and correlation – my understanding