Brexit…. 10-50-40 ( no deal – orderly exit – no Brexit ) Two possible scenarios on Dec. 11th in Parliament: 1. Withdrawal Act pass ( risk on ) GBPUSD up, Rates sell off, risk asset in UK/Europe rally 2. Rejected ( risk off )
TSLA Analysis Overprice | Underweight • Distinguish product, unique business model, cutting edge technology. No legacy burden such as pension, OPEB… • However, all above factors have been priced in a lot, even with bolder forecast in model 3 volume. • The street valuation is given by a combination of lots of valuation factors and … Continue reading TSLA Analysis：Overprice | Underweight
Fed: Expect 2-3 hikes in 2019 Few believe the leveraged loans today would set off a crisis, since they focus on a smaller part of the economy rather than sprawling the housing mkt in 2008 The total leverage loan market is now doubled what is was in 2008, around 59% of them are junk loans. … Continue reading Market Recap 2018/11/28
Brexit: deal or not deal? Bring lots of vol to the mkt Major indexes got boost as US China trade optimism. ABS spread widen for EU -> investors biggest concern is the upcoming implementation of the securitization regulation US Fed stop purchasing agency mortgage and it is challenging and widen the spread Dec rate hike … Continue reading Market Recap 11/15/2018
Basically, everyone (or almost everyone) knows that independence and correlation equal to zero are different concepts. More importantly, they don’t have two-way relations, which is if you know two random variables X, Y have zero correlation, you cannot imply that X and Y are independent. However, if X and Y are independent, they will be … Continue reading Difference between independence and correlation – my understanding
Conservative view on BABA in 2019/2020 Pay attention to monetization rate improvement, regulation and other competition.
Pending home sale decline 1.8%, disappointing New home sale soften as well House price cooling off.. ARS TRY very volatile in recent three months.