Market Recap 2/15/2019

China: US-China tase talks appear to have ended on a hopeful note according to press reports this morning and the negotiation set to continue next week in Washington Negotiations have discussed the possibility of removing Washington’a 10% tariffs on $200b worth if Chinese import (while leaving in place the 25% tariff on $50 billion worth … Continue reading Market Recap 2/15/2019

Market Recap 1/30/2019

FOMC meeting Overall tone around growth remain optimistic Powell signals the fed is on pause until around summer China US talk 1/30 -1/31, senior Chinese official are set to meeting their American counterparts in Washington Tim Cook says tension between US and China were easing China, many provinces are cutting their 2019 growth target Base … Continue reading Market Recap 1/30/2019

Market Recap 2018/12/15

World economy- Complex US is stable growth, 2.5. Retail consumption is strong. China is a little disappointing but still ok, tracking 6% growth. EU is dragging, disappointing number in the past consecutive three months. JP is still holding the view of four hikes…. though the mkt expectation is two Gil’s next year. JP believes that … Continue reading Market Recap 2018/12/15

2018 mkt recap 关于市场几点感悟

市场recap https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/rIP5l3RUH-cHmYCe849qWw 第一点,早在今年年中,JP出了一份研报讲美国股市跟世界其他股指的累计收益差距是历史最大,而且这种趋势前所未见。(原本以为我在biweekly recap里面应该有讲,结果没看到。。尴尬)当时市场的预期是,要么美股risk off,跌下去,要么其他股市pick up。当时解决的美股risk off可能性大一些,现在回过头来看市场证明了这点。 第二点,从九十月份开始,市场就在讲各类产品收益率普遍不好,那个时候就应该更坚定的把配置多放在money mkt上。现在看起来,我最后的操作是stock/bond/cash的比例从大约从70/30/0调整到50/45/5,现在看起来还是太保守,明明知道债市表现跟股市一样差,还是应该把钱拿出来放money mkt,熊市保本还是没有做到。 第三点:科技股。庆幸的是,自己没有盲目追求科技股。除了FB,当时因为用户数据泄露超跌,在160入了下,没有其他position。但后来发现FB喋喋不休。。从180跌倒120,加上市场上科技股普遍表现不好,加剧了下跌。。。再加上后续一直有负面消息,有种FB要掉队的感觉。。。 不过总体FB仓位很低,风险可控。对科技股泡沫有预期这点很坚定。 总结,2018的市场表现给我最大的两个收获,第一个是在2017年各类资产收益创出新高,但经济(美国)稳中向好的时候,该如何做2018市场的展望。当时认定经济扩张从上游传导到下游消费市场,应该看到retail的扩张。后来事实证明2018上半年retail收益也是不错的。但这个策略没有坚持下来。。第二个是当到2018下半年,贸易战,经济指标出现差异,加息带来的市场下行的压力增大,结合一个资产表现极好的2017-2018上半年,导致2018下所有资产类别压力都很大。在这个时候如何调整资产配置,就像我之前论述的一样,应该果断调整,持有cash。