Position Adjustment Take the profit of Gold for the short term (+15%). And wait for the draw down again. Still OW Gold in the long term. Take the profit of utility ETF (+15%) as the utility P/E at the peak and all time high already. Clear the holding and UW utility in the long run. […]
Currency CNYUSD depreciation factor: (1) trade war causes the pressure on China export. PBoC is willing to ease the CNY to support the export. (2) PBoC may have rate cut to support the economy if needed CNYUSD anti-depreciation factor: (1) spread of 3 month SHIBOR – LIBOR is close to zero, and expect to enlarge […]
Mixed mkt news. Strong US employment growth FOMC policy more up to debate, but July ease is on target. BoJ and ECB to wait. Some cushion is building from easing 关键要点: 1. 尽管 G20 峰会发布了“符合预期”的报告，但周末出现了两个重要的惊喜。 2. 随着美国在华为问题上做出了一些让步，对投资者来说，8 月 19 日美国对这家中国电信巨头实施制裁的 最后期限可能不会那么令人担忧。 3. 此外，周末的一份声明暗示，白宫可能会转向竞选模式，暗示财政政策的风险可能有利于2020年实现 出人意料扩张。 4. 这种转变将与美联储 5 月份的政策重心调整相辅相成，更重要的是，中国、日本甚至欧盟可能出现潜 在的财政货币政策相配合。 5. 全球财政政策势头可能再度发力，可能会缓解当前地缘政治风险，让估值逆风成为我们的首要担忧。但 我们仍然认为，“非对称”风险资产敞口在 2H19 仍有价值。
Two rate cut this year half, driven by slower growth(trade war) and low inflation. Revise GDP growth to 1.2-1.5% The market rationale expect to ease the trade tension which everyone does except Trump. So there is a miscalculation risk if trump behavior irrational. Asset allocation suggestion: A股还是在历史低位，易主席又发话了。我个人还是愿意OW A股，看好中长期。（便宜还是硬道理的） 考虑到贸易战，UW EM currency, OW JPY and Gold这种风险对冲产品。美股和各类还是不要买了，特别是会受贸易战影响的。更何况现在美股太贵了。 […]
Econ lifting, more in EU and China
PMI in Japan and EU both fell US and China continue to head towards a compromise. The broad outline of what make up a deal is beginning to emerge from the talk. FOMC: no new information.
China: US-China tase talks appear to have ended on a hopeful note according to press reports this morning and the negotiation set to continue next week in Washington Negotiations have discussed the possibility of removing Washington’a 10% tariffs on $200b worth if Chinese import (while leaving in place the 25% tariff on $50 billion worth […]